O97 - Scientific Advice and Foresight in Complex Systems: Lessons from Smallholder Fertiliser Subsidy Programme in Kakamega County, Kenya
2. Individual abstractsCaroline Muchiri1, Cory Whitney1
1 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
Introduction
Predicting performance of soil fertility interventions is a difficult undertaking, especially when dealing with complex smallholder agricultural systems. Ex-ante impact assessment can provide a solution to this, but there is usually no way of knowing how crops will respond to fertiliser inputs, pest and disease infestations, labour constraints or weather extremes. This paper uses Stochastic Impact Evaluation (SIE) approach to project intervention outcomes on complex agricultural systems. The SIE approach allows for a holistic analysis of intervention cost benefit and risk variables, including those with uncertain and missing information. It also identifies areas that pose decision-critical uncertainties, where further research would lead to clear decision options. We illustrate this approach using a case study from Kakamega County, Kenya, where decision-makers from the Ministry of Agriculture are considering investing in a fertiliser subsidy programme for smallholder farmers, and developing a fertiliser subsidy policy based on the performance of the programme. The County Government has the option of subsidising fertiliser inputs during (i) the long rains season, which is characterized by intensive planting of maize and beans, (ii) the short rains season, which is characterized by small scale planting of beans and in some cases maize, and (iii) sugarcane development, for farmers that intercrop sugarcane with maize and beans. Results indicate that subsidising fertilizer inputs during long rains could be profitable for smallholder farmers. However, the decision to subsidise fertilizer inputs during short rains could be risky. Research on farmer resource allocation during short rains could help to further clarify this investment decision. The decision to invest in fertiliser subsidies for sugarcane development, when farmers intercrop sugarcane with maize and beans, is the most profitable option. Therefore, fertilizer subsidy policy development efforts could focus on encouraging investments in sustainable agricultural intensification. However, interventions emanating from these policies must include a strong monitoring and evaluation component to ensure sustainability. The SIE approach could be used as a learning tool for supporting soil fertility policy development and implementation at county and national level.